Personalized survival probabilities for SARS-CoV-2 positive patients by explainable machine learning

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Interpretable risk assessment of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients can aid clinicians to implement precision medicine. Here we trained a machine learning model to predict mortality within 12 weeks of a first positive SARS-CoV-2 test. By leveraging data on 33,938 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in eastern Denmark, we considered 2723 variables extracted from electronic health records (EHR) including demographics, diagnoses, medications, laboratory test results and vital parameters. A discrete-time framework for survival modelling enabled us to predict personalized survival curves and explain individual risk factors. Performance on the test set was measured with a weighted concordance index of 0.95 and an area under the curve for precision-recall of 0.71. Age, sex, number of medications, previous hospitalizations and lymphocyte counts were identified as top mortality risk factors. Our explainable survival model developed on EHR data also revealed temporal dynamics of the 22 selected risk factors. Upon further validation, this model may allow direct reporting of personalized survival probabilities in routine care.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer13879
TidsskriftScientific Reports
Vol/bind12
ISSN2045-2322
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2022

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
The study was supported by a COVID-19 grant from the Ministry of Higher Education and Science (0238-00006B) and the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF126). The Capital Region of Denmark, Center for Economy, provided data extracts from the EHR system.

Funding Information:
The study was supported by a COVID-19 grant from the Ministry of Higher Education and Science (0238-00006B) and the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF126). The Capital Region of Denmark, Center for Economy, provided data extracts from the EHR system.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

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